A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
